Tough one - what should Ukraine do? Take a step back - they’ve surivied a war of existential conquest. And probably in a better state than you’d have expected in 2022 if you’re honest. The high-level mission now is to mitigate or prevent The Next War, which will always be looming as long as the predatory monster of Russian imperialism sits next door.
The line has barely moved in over two years. Russia’s cruel intentions have not changed 1%, but their military capability has evaporated to the point that all they can do is terror bomb, and trade meat for thin slices of rubble, at less and less favorable ratios.
Russia won’t win. They can’t win. If eveything stopped today, it won’t have been worth it. Ukraine is gone from their grasp forever. For the first time in 1,000 years their abusive enslavement of Ukraine ends. They have less than zero credibility, pissed away a 30 year war chest, 60 years worth of Soviet hardware inheritance, are generally a global pariah and the junior partner to China in the Axis of mafia state shitholes. Or is it?
Russia, of course, will now switch gears back to corrosive misinformaiton, right wing populism and election interference - all things they’re frankly better at than fighting wars against near-peer armies. The push for elections is clearly to try and infiltrate the process and get an Orban/Fico like stooge in power eventually, which will give them the de facto victory that they couldn’t achieve militarily.
Point being - Ukraine will never truly be safe until the fundamental imperialist petro mafia gangster state formulation of the Russian Federation changes. Whether that is from a Gorbachev-like deconstructionist leader in Russia or a descent into post-Putin feuding warlodism too divided to menace their neighbors remains to be seen over the next 5-10 years. Until then - Ukraine should expect political, economic, electoral interference, espionage, assassination and general orc ghoul fuckery to be table stakes. Especially if America continues it’s descent into Republican Dictatorship and Russia feels no consequences. Post-War poverty and crime will be blamed on Ukrainians anyways, in an attempt to keep a narrative on the simmer if you need any flimsy pretxt for another war.
So - what do you do? If you’re Ukraine, and if this were a strategy simulation…the best way to sustain a lasting peace might be…to keep fighting. Accept the chest thumping outrage of Kremlin-aligned stooges like Trump that “ukraine are warmongers!!!”, but - keep the Russian war machine bleeding until it collapses.
But this isn’t a simulation. This is people’s lives, a nation’s existence, and you need to rebuild your country with internal strength and external security guarantees. Is a long war better than a bad peace?
Tough one, indeed
Shame on Reuters for sane washing Trump’s backstabbing corruption. There is no “deal” to be made with Trump. They are notorious bad faith negotiators. Ukraine’s future is with Europe.
Absolutley. And frankly - despite the awfulness of this entire stupid war, there is optimism in the long run. Putin, a black hearted, overpromoted gangster ghoul lich king of a completely shattered, debased society who offers the world nothing but death, destruction and mischief, has seen their worldview project crumble in just 4 years. He will die having been the man who lost Ukraine, the man who lost Russia and sold it to China. Putin the Fool will go down in history as The. Worst. Russian. Ever. Which is saying something.
Indeed, Ukraine has suffered dearly - but this is a 1,000 year divorce and they will integrate into Europe without any delusions about some sort of unspoken, unbreakable bond to Moscow that only the orc horde seem to think exists. Their entire way of war, the Horde War that presumed you could roll from Poland to Portugal before the feckless pussies in the west could even start to respond has turned out to be every bit the myth the rest of their shitty Cruelty Project pretending to be a society is. Russia will continue to rot and fall apart, imprisoned by its own hubris. The Mad Tsar will be a cautionary tale about investing too much power in one man, and in ignoring the much bigger, more REAL threat to the east - China.
One would just like it all to happen a bit faster, though.