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Cake day: July 6th, 2023

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  • I see two reasons for Russia to accept a cease fire : they are happy with what they took and want to keep it, so a cease fire is better because there is no treaty to give back anything ; or they want a bit of time to rebuild their supply of ammo and equipment before they go back at it.

    The first one would be if the US continue to support Ukraine. It would make it like the west is now supporting the war while Russia is asking for peace (totally hypocritical of course). Russia could stand on its positions and solidify them if it’s accepted. If Ukraine continue the war, it’ll be Ukraine on the offensive, which is a harder position.

    The second one would be if Ukraine loses US support and ask for a cease fire after the dombass is fully taken. Russia wouldn’t be armed to take it to rebuild it’s supply before going again. The risk here would be that nato or UN send forces in Ukraine, and if Europe take this time to increase its weapon production too, but those are unlikely on a short term.



  • I’ve seen a video about an ammunition being developed to be adapted to the underbarrel grenade launcher. Problem is that it needs to be ready if you any chance at it, and you only have one chance.

    Second problem is that most Russian soldiers are barely trained and equipped anyway, they’re just litteral canon fodder. Elite troops certainly have something to fight drones, but I suspect jamming would be the first layer. The video we see are most probably against the canon fodder.






  • I’ve heard rumors of a planned attack against Ukraine in this region. This move prevents it.

    As other said, it also makes Putin look like a clown, increase the cost of the war for Russia (they have their own refugees now who will spread the word of how Russia is invaded for the first time since ww2), allows to take prisoners and equipment, give control over a gas pipeline so they can pressure Austria and Hungary, forces Russia to move troups and equipment away from the Dombass, improves the moral in Ukraine with victories and humiliating Russia.

    Strategically, the only drawback for Ukraine is that they are in a position of invading force in some way, which may make some allies or international opinions a bit uncomfortable. But the whole list of positives has the potential to change the war.


  • I’ve seen a paper saying that in Afghanistan amputee were 10% or wounded.

    It’s hard to tell in Ukraine. The casualty rate for Russian is probably extremely high in the areas where they send meat waves one after the others. And for people to be disabled, they need to survive first.

    But it’s very hard to make a stat over the whole war. I wouldn’t be surprised if 30% were dead and 20% disabled.

    For after the war you need to add the trauma on top though. Even the able survivors will be psychologically scarred for life.





  • It depends. There are riots in England currently because some racists don’t want anymore immigration. I’m pretty sure you can easily have a very heated debate with these guys. You may talk with a jew about Israel these days too.

    If you avoid hit topic with the wrong person, you won’t find strong opinions. But Internet bring people together, especially when they want to fight eachother.